Tuesday, October 14, 2008

fourteen! (obama opens wide lead on mccain)

Today (coincidentally the fourteenth of October) a new CBS News/New York Times poll has Barack Obama leading John McCain by a whopping 14 points, 53%-39%.
One week ago, prior to the Town Hall debate that uncommitted voters saw as a win for Obama, that margin was just three points.

Among independents who are likely voters - a group that has swung back and forth between McCain and Obama over the course of the campaign - the Democratic ticket now leads by 18 points. McCain led among independents last week.

McCain's campaign strategy may be hurting hurt him: Twenty-one percent of voters say their opinion of the Republican has changed for the worse in the last few weeks. The top two reasons cited for the change of heart are McCain's attacks on Obama and his choice of Sarah Palin as running mate.
Obama is currently leading in every major poll, and Real Clear Politics gives him an average lead of 8.1 points after factoring in this new poll and an LA Times/Bloomberg poll that has the Democrat leading by nine points. (Obama's second-highest showing is in the GW/Battleground Tracking poll, in which he leads by 13 points.)

Taking a look at the electoral map at RCP, the Democratic ticket also holds a clear advantage over McCain and Palin. Obama has 313 electoral votes according to their calculations, while McCain would only win 158. Even if McCain were to win all of the remaining toss-up states (Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, and North Carolina), he would still lose the election handily. Notice any notorious swing states missing from that list? That's because Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico have shown the potential to become bonafide blue states, and for now are being listed in the Democratic column.

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